Making predictions is hard. And it becomes even harder when the information you are working with is, well… noisy. In Nate Silver’s book, “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t,” he connects our ineptability to make accurate predictions (humans, not Fire fans) as an evolutionary problem identifying the truth from nonsense.
In a line that feels very Chicago Fire-y, Silver says, “Some stone-age strengths have become information-age weaknesses.” Let’s replace “stone-age,” with “MLS 1.0,” pause for a moment, and then move on.
It’s been a really noisy four weeks: An opening draw against a Columbus team that might be awful, a shrug-then-bunker opening day against half an RSL side, then a dizzying loss to Atlanta that gave us about eight minutes of actual soccer to work with. Bad soccer.
This weekend Fire Confidential broke the news that 3rd-year player and fan favorite Harrison Shipp would be traded to Montreal Impact for General and Targeted Allocation Money.
As a Homegrown Player who spent his childhood and most of his adult life in the Chicago area Shipp was devastated about the transaction, as were Fire fans who saw Harry as a sign of hope in a team that desperately needed something to cheer about.
(Ed. Note — Possible headlines I decided not to use: “Shipp’s Passing,” “Abandoned Shipp,” “Harry’s Situation”)
Prompt: Now that they have parted ways, what does the future hold for Harry Shipp and the Chicago Fire?
The “Original Recipe” OTF Roundtable returns. Preseason practice has begun, the team looks considerably younger and (dare we say it), there are even some signs of hope. Even some of OTF’s perma-skeptics may be coming around to the team … maybe.
Today’s roundtable question:
What is one prediction about the 2016 Fire season that you are sure will come true?
Chicago Fire GM Nelson Rodriguez and Head Coach Veljko Paunovic calling Brian Bliss to get his laptop password.
Frankly, all of Fire Nation was hoping we’d have more things to talk about by now, but no dice.
With the international transfer window now open and the MLS Superdraft combine beginning today Chicago continues to shed both salaries, personalities, and staff.
The number of players remaining on the Fire’s roster sits at 14, with the organization making no additions during either stage of the Re-Entry Draft in December and choosing not to cash in on any of MLS’s first, albeit aging, free agents.
Fabian Johnson challenged by Oribe Peralta during USMNT vs Mexico match Saturday (via BostonHerald.com)
After the U.S. did not make the Gold Cup final earlier this year, it was clear that Jurgen Klinsman had been given a longer leash than previous National Team coaches like Bob Bradley and Bruce Arena. Now, after the US loss to Mexico on Saturday night and their match against Costa Rica tonight, we ask the OTF Staff: What changes (if any) need to be made to improve the United States Men’s National Team?
Wow. That happened quick.
Quicker than we were able get to Home Depot for some new pitchforks and lanterns, the Chicago Fire organization borrowed some from the Bridgeview Grounds Crew and did it themselves, (maybe). As of Sunday afternoon Technical Director and Head Coach Frank Yallop is out (along with his coaching staff), and Owner Andrew Hauptman has installed a General Manager with some serious league chops — Nelson Rodriguez. Read Fire’s official release here, and read below for some additional speculation.
So, we ask our illustrious OTF Writers Pool: Do the recent Fire Front Office and coaching changes make you more optimistic, pessimistic, or increasingly indifferent about the future of the organization?
If you’ve sworn off the #CF97 hashtag for the rest of the year you missed a (*ahem*) Fire Storm earlier this week when former Chicago Fire defender Hunter Jumper tweeted for HOURS about the Fire organization. Most of Jumper’s Tweets are still up if you want to track back.
If you’re looking for a straight recap with minimal commentary, Fire Confidential has captured the rant for posterity’s sake. Here’s what some OTF contributors had to say about Jumper’s damning tirade when asked…
“What’s your biggest take-away from Hunter Jumper’s Twitter Comments?”
Near the end of the Fire’s third loss in a row last Saturday, Alexi Lalas doubled-down on his flattery of second year stand-out Harry Shipp by suggesting that he was the Fire’s only “real” DP, and further stating that Harry may be “Too Good” to play for Chicago…
It’s unanimous. Harry is Most Outstanding (soccerbyives.net)
OTF Roundtablers break out their grade books and embark upon a mid-term review…
Sean J under siege in KC (chicago-fire.com)
Play for the draw? It’s a mixed bag from the Roundtable this week…
La Pantera le gusta la Copa Abierta de EE. UU. (mlssoccer.com)
The OTF Roundtable is back to ponder the future…
Will he buy players who’ve worn hallowed kits like this? (photo: chicago-fire.com)
This week, with all the MLS talk about stars and cash, the Roundtable asks, “W.W.H.D?”
Have you grown weary of scenes like this? (photo: dispatch.com)
It’s still early, but the Roundtable ponders a question many answered before First Kick…
Weapon Q creates PKs too (photo: golazo.com)
The Roundtable ponders whether Chicago Fire is better than their record shows…
This is the better. (photo: chicagotribune.com)
This week, the Roundtable ponders a profound statement by a fellow OTFer…
The gaffer unfiltered (image: youtube.com)
Back from break, the Roundtable looks at some Frank Yallop tape…
Alex was a box-to-box force last Saturday (photo: thestate.com)
The Roundtable brings you some over-the-counter medicine for what ails the Fire…
Matt Watson’s played admirably so far this season. Would he be in your starting XI? (photo: sportsspyder.com)
Five games in, it’s a Roundtable full of gaffers…
Certainly, we all love #QuincyTime, but is it enough? (photo: chicagotribune.com)
Winless through four games, is it time for Fire Nation to press the panic button on the Men in Red, or remain patient? OTF’s Roundtablers ponder the question…
Big Red giveth, but he also taketh away (photo: chicago-fire.com)
Roundtable Group Three’s back to mull over three weeks of Chicago Fire Soccer…
A better Sega = A better Fire (photo: dailyemerald.com)
This week, OTF’s second group of roundtablers share what’s on their respective Chicago Fire minds…
Buck up, gaffer (image: chicago-fire.com)
Some imaginary words for da new coach of da Fires…
Coming soon to a Toyota Park near you… (photo: chicago-fire.com)
Time to kickoff the 2014 season, OTF Roundtable style…
Each and every week during the 2013 season, OTF contributors had their say on our Men in Red. Here’s their collective swan song…